Mega Millions (USA) Odds & Rules

United States · Lottery Probability Lab
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Interactive Simulator

Mega Millions is one of America’s premier multi-state lotteries, famous for record-breaking billion-dollar jackpots. This page details Mega Millions odds, rules, and offers a free online simulator.

Probability Knowledge

How to Play

Each play picks 5 of 70 white balls and 1 of 25 gold Mega Balls per $2 ticket. Draws occur twice weekly (Tue / Fri). There are 9 prize tiers.

Prize Tiers & Winning Odds

Single-ticket odds for all 9 tiers (one standard play). Jackpot odds: 1 / 302,575,350.

TierMatchOdds (1 in)Prize
Jackpot5 white + Mega Ball1 / 302,575,350¥400,000,000
2nd Prize5 white + 0 Mega Ball1 / 12,607,306¥1,000,000
3rd Prize4 white + Mega Ball1 / 931,001¥10,000
4th Prize4 white + 0 Mega Ball1 / 38,792¥500
5th Prize3 white + Mega Ball1 / 14,547¥200
6th Prize3 white + 0 Mega Ball1 / 606¥10
7th Prize2 white + Mega Ball1 / 693¥10
8th Prize1 white + Mega Ball1 / 89¥4
9th PrizeMega Ball only1 / 37¥2

Long-run return rate ≈ 50% (including the average floating jackpot; a bigger jackpot raises it). Buying more covers more combinations, but per-bet expected value is unchanged.

Probability Analysis

Single-ticket jackpot odds are 1 / 302,575,350 (≈0.00000033%). It is one of the world’s rarest random events, akin to flipping 28 consecutive heads on a coin.

Simulated History (Demonstration)

All draws here are locally simulated with pseudo-random numbers for educational purposes. No real money involved.

The simulator above keeps a rolling “draw ledger” and “life records” — these are generated by the local model, not real draws.

Prediction Analysis

Prediction analysis: draws are strictly independent with ≈50% long-run expected return. The simulator realistically recreates bankroll drawdowns.

FAQ

What are the Mega Millions jackpot odds?
Single-ticket jackpot odds are 1 / 302,575,350 (C(70,5)=12,103,014 × 25).
Which is rarer: Mega Millions or Powerball?
Mega Millions is 1 in 302.5M vs Powerball at 1 in 292.2M, making it slightly harder.
What is the second prize?
The 2nd prize (match 5 white) is $1,000,000 cash with odds ≈ 1 in 12.6M.
Are the draws real?
No — all draws are local probability simulations.
What are the Mega Millions winning odds and how are they calculated?
Single-ticket jackpot odds are 1 / 302,575,350 (C(70,5)=12,103,014 white combos × 25 Mega Ball).
Which is harder to win: Mega Millions or Powerball?
Mega Millions is 1 in 302.5M vs Powerball at 1 in 292.2M.
How often is Mega Millions drawn?
Mega Millions draws twice a week.
What is the Mega Millions return rate?
Around 50% under baseline model.

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